Dr
Ravi Batra has been keen in predicting the future with variable
success, although centuries has gone without great depression,
but the direction has been always accurate, besides his theories have awaken curious interest. Before 1990s Batra suggested that "share prices will crash all over
the world, leading to a seven-year-long depression, but despite a
huge trade deficit the U.S. escaped an economic depression.
Batra expained: At that moment in 1990, the U.S. was in a recession
and had a budget deficit of almost $300 billion. If interest rates
had continued to rise, that recession could have possibly turned into
a depression. But the unexpected Japanese money saved the day by
pouring into the U.S. So what we in US have is prosperity
based on borrowed money. Therefore it cannot last forever. So
certainly most American financiers know we are in a bubble economy
but they hate to admit it.
Some successful
forecasts
in 1970s to
1992:
The
Ayatollahs
would take over Iran in 1979. The US
would be entangled in a major fight with fundamentalist Islam
starting around 2000. The
stock market will
crash
in
2001.
The
collapse
of the Soviet, but not Chinese communism. George Bush would not be
re-elected and that a third party would arise in 1996. The
decline of morality in western society.
In his latest book, "The New Golden Age", Jan 2007: http://www.ravibatra.com/gapr.html, he predicts: Oil price will break new record until 2010 in spite of a slowing economy, but collapse in the next decade. The housing bubble will keep bursting at least till 2009. Share prices slow fall in 2007, but fall will accelerate in 2008 and 2009. An unprecedented movement will appear by 2009 to start a revolution against the rule of wealthy lobbyists in politics. The revolution will lead to a new golden age in the next decade, which will eclipse the reign of wealth in politics, establish a truly free enterprise economy, end permissiveness, and bring now discarded spiritual values back into fashion. The darker human history will finally succumb to the nobility inherent in each and every one of us. It could take another thirty-year cycle before the new age sprouts in its all-encompassing effulgence, but come it will. "The future of the world is bright". http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6ybUosa3ZA.
In his latest book, "The New Golden Age", Jan 2007: http://www.ravibatra.com/gapr.html, he predicts: Oil price will break new record until 2010 in spite of a slowing economy, but collapse in the next decade. The housing bubble will keep bursting at least till 2009. Share prices slow fall in 2007, but fall will accelerate in 2008 and 2009. An unprecedented movement will appear by 2009 to start a revolution against the rule of wealthy lobbyists in politics. The revolution will lead to a new golden age in the next decade, which will eclipse the reign of wealth in politics, establish a truly free enterprise economy, end permissiveness, and bring now discarded spiritual values back into fashion. The darker human history will finally succumb to the nobility inherent in each and every one of us. It could take another thirty-year cycle before the new age sprouts in its all-encompassing effulgence, but come it will. "The future of the world is bright". http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6ybUosa3ZA.
Batra’s
approach to forecasting is based on historical cycles of
inflation, money growth, and depression as well as the law of social
cycles imparted by his late teacher, P.R. Sarkar: History shows that
societies are, predictably, led by one of four types of people:
laborers, warriors, intellectuals, or acquisitors. Simply put, each
group sits at the top for a time, until another group assumes power.
Batra wrote that we’re nearing the end of the acquisitors stage,
when business money class ruled society for profit at all costs.
Next stage in US collective social evolution, will be a revolution by
laborers, followed by the age of “warriors” — courageous people
willing to take risks.
After
The Great Depression of 1990, He wrote The Myth of Free
Trade, claiming free trade itself could destroy America’s
economy. Productivity was rapidly outpacing wages, bringing windfall
profits, but leaving others behind. The stock market crash in Dec
2000 was predicted in his book: The Crash of the Millennium in
1999. The New Golden Age was published 2007: He wrote that
the current crisis would begin in mid-2007 by rising unemployment,
soaring consumer and government debt, and huge stock market losses.
National leaders would be late in responding to the crisis because
the traditional criteria for defining a recession is outdated, given
that many companies have sent so many jobs overseas, he said,
productivity can rise while American wages stagnate and even shrink.
When
productivity rises, more goods are produced. But since wages are
flat, consumers have no extra money to buy the extra goods. And when
sales shrink, the whole downward spiral begins. “The main reason
why I wrote and put my own career on the line was to avoid the very
things that are happening right now,” he said. Kanth
explains:
he
writes against the sacred cows of economics (free trade) and
economists (the establishment and capitalism) and
shows
the moral corruption of the [economics] profession and the ruling
elites. Thom
Hartmann adds:
It’s no wonder, that Batra’s predictions haven’t been popular
on the national stage... The core of his predictions: an increasing
gap between rich and poor can destroy a society. (www.ravibatra.com).
Batra thinks the approaches taken by Congress and the White House have only worsened the economic storm that is spreading worldwide. “The 2008 bailout is the latest instance of crisis profiteering,” he said. “The investment bankers will come out smiling while the public foots the bill.”
The
government’s help should have been directed toward homeowners and
lenders, not Goldman Sachs. Batra thinks Obama “has his heart in
the right place” and he’s not a member of the rich elite, but who
he’s bringing on board...Geithner as treasury secretary...
Low-income Americans are not able to buy even Christmas gifts, so lower rates aren’t going to be enough to help them buy homes. Batra would recommend three initiatives to stimulate the economy to the powers that be: to increase the minimum wage immediately and the pay for government employees; to help struggling homeowners, with such ideas as FDIC chief Sheila Blair; to use $10 billion to spark improvements in the sick auto industry, where stocks and company control would be given to workers. The other $5 billion would go toward pension costs. Batra calls it mass capitalism — capitalism at the level of the masses. It’s not socialism - government ownership of property.
Low-income Americans are not able to buy even Christmas gifts, so lower rates aren’t going to be enough to help them buy homes. Batra would recommend three initiatives to stimulate the economy to the powers that be: to increase the minimum wage immediately and the pay for government employees; to help struggling homeowners, with such ideas as FDIC chief Sheila Blair; to use $10 billion to spark improvements in the sick auto industry, where stocks and company control would be given to workers. The other $5 billion would go toward pension costs. Batra calls it mass capitalism — capitalism at the level of the masses. It’s not socialism - government ownership of property.
He
sees some very heavy years ahead, when things doesn't improve and
people will start questioning. Despite all short-term pessimism, he’s
convinced that positive change is on the way, based on Sarkar's
historical, economic and social cycles. “We are on the verge of a
social revolution — it’s already started. The second part, where
new ideas and new reforms take over, will come after few years. Then
the age of acquisitors will be over, and there will be a new age with
a totally different attitude toward the economic system.
The revolution will bring in a new chapter of greater economic equality — first in the U.S, then to the rest of the world. “The U.S. has never been in any other age other than the age of acquisitors. So this will be a new experience for the U.S. Prosperity will make a comeback, and the U.S. will maintain its superiority, he predicts.
He
expects political revolution and that we will benefit from it. US
economy is touted as a free enterprise economy, but in fact we have a
monopolized economy, "Crony Capitalism." So we have gotten
into this mess by: first, allowing wages to lag behind productivity
and secondly by artificially bolstering demand by creating a
tremendous amount of debt, so we have postponed the problem.
It
is the power of money over politics that is creating problems. Rich
people have increased ability to buy off elections. So their power
has risen very sharply in the U.S. and also in the rest of the world.
So Crony Capitalism is ruling the world...A booming stock market
comes from a rising wage gap and rising wealth concentration. But
productive investments or investments that boost economic growth
result only when money goes into real assets.
Asian
Tigers, Brazil or Russia have an inflationary recession, but because
U.S. economy has remained strong, they have been able to export and
keep their economies going. But this time it is inflationary in
nature - exception to the past. The reason why it is inflationary is
that their currencies have collapsed....When there is inflation, gold
becomes king.
Monopolistic
nature of capitalism leads to the rising wage gap and rising wealth
disparity and potentially rising demand gap and rising stock prices
that cannot be sustained by real demand growth. So that is the
ultimate problem around the world and that is also the case in the
U.S.
It
is not the Fed that is controlling society, but rather a certain
mentality. So no matter what the Fed does, the acquisitive mentality
has apparently created a three decade long cycle of money growth. The
economy grew because that wages kept up with productivity! U.S. is at
the center of its own global empire. In any empire the center is the
last to fall. But this is a very dangerous situation because we are
talking about an inflationary depression. So even bonds that do well
in a deflationary period will get hit hard in an inflationary
period...
In
early stages of history each step along the way was better. Thus
Feudalism was better than what preceded it. Capitalism was better
than Feudalism, but Crony Capitalism is better than the earliest
capitalism, say during the industrial revolution. So the new system
will be much better than the current Crony Capitalism. Over thousands
of years of human evolution, we have discovered political democracy
but we have yet to discover economic democracy.
Batra
tells about his life and spiritual struggle:
1964 Batra met spiritual leader and scientist Sarkar to learn the
science of spirituality, how to meditate on fatherly creator. His non
compromising resolve was since tested many times. He developed
honesty and non violence and
wanted to help the poor and exploited people.
Batra
got scholarship to US University at the time when the winds of sexual
freedom wiped across US; girls were easily available for dating.
Batra resisted the temptation by going more deep in meditation, but
his studies suffered when
he missed many classes. Still he was not satisfied of the
divine attention, until
he realized that he could do his studies fast and then concentrate
just to his meditation.
He
told his tutor that he wanted to complete all seven exams in one
month instead of two years, which it would have normally taken. The
tutor was more than surprised. Batra started tremendous study and
spent less time in meditation. He realized that by writing he learnt
much faster. That way he made his dissertation ready before his exams
and without passing preparation stage. The tutor was speechless, but
accepted his dissertation.
As well he passed the exams with top grades. Three years study was
accomplished in less than two months.
The
tutor was expecting him to take now job, but his aim was just to do
meditation day and night during ther
rest two year scholarship
time. Year 1968 Sarkar requested him to come to India. Sarkar noted
that “his face was shining with the innocence of a devotee and the
fire of a principled man”. Batra went into deep meditative state
for hour, then Sarkar advised him to go back to US and establish
himself in economics for removing the poverty of the world.
Batra
thought that he was not even in the top 50 universities in US, so how
could he reach any
attention. He knew
meditation alone will not make
his mission to help the poor, he needed to establish himself as top
economist before anyone would listen him. He started by sending his
writings to most respected economic journals, first they all
rejected, but finally Oxford Economic Paper accepted his writing. He
gave all the honor to his spiritual father; “he
is the writer, I'm just a spectator.”
1969
he ended up teaching in University, in 1971 he had already written 5
accepted articles in top journals around the world, and
in1973 already 20. He became
also the head of SMU university economic deparment in 1977. He wrote
a book about history, his favorite subject after reading Sarka's
books about economics and history. He was charmed about Sarkarian
historical philosophy.
1978
Economic Inquiry published list of 46 top economists. Batra was third
amongst famous university professors from Harvard and Stanford. But
his triumph was short as he started to challenge the present economic
theories, which brought him
soon opposition. He
expected that at the end of
the century the extreme concentration of wealth in the western
countries would trigger violent social upheavals.
Then
1983 he wrote a book predicting The Greatest Depression of 1990
hoping to wake up the public. The ostracism went into full swing.
Nobody wanted to publish his book. He tried 30 different publishers.
Finally he had to publish it himself and as well distribute, which he
did with all his determination. Second printing was done on 1985. He
tried to create sacrificing attitude by doing serious fastings to
create environment for its success, until he was ready to surrender
and concentrated on meditation. But then the book gain more and more
attention, someone called to tell, that his book had shaken up New
York Stock Exchange, and he didn't even have publisher for it.
Finally
some publisher approached him to get it for printing. It
went soon 10 th on New York Times best seller list - never before any
economic book had done it. But his fellow economists denounced it
with unusual vehemence. In his book he had predicted stocks to crash
at the end of 1987, and the biggest crash ever in history; the black
monday came. Now his book became Best seller on New York Times list
and stayed on that stage more than year.
Ravi
Batra has done tremendous work to make people to understand that
economy could change the course of the world into prosperity for all.
Ravi Batra has toured around the world, he visited also Finland in 90s and met professors and media.
talousdemokratia.blogspot.com page: Batra predicts US occupation retreats on Muslin countries to face defeat at the end, due to lack of moral, money and resources.
Sources: Jay Taylor, Hartman, Raj Time, Kant, Kendal Anderson, Ravi Batra India's brilliant future -book 1989
Didi Annapurna
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