keskiviikko 20. helmikuuta 2013

Ravi Batra, best selling author and disciple of Sarkar

Dr Ravi Batra has been keen in predicting the future with variable success, although centuries has gone without great depression, but the direction has been always accurate, besides his theories have awaken curious interest. Before 1990s Batra suggested that "share prices will crash all over the world, leading to a seven-year-long depression, but despite a huge trade deficit the U.S. escaped an economic depression. Batra expained: At that moment in 1990, the U.S. was in a recession and had a budget deficit of almost $300 billion. If interest rates had continued to rise, that recession could have possibly turned into a depression. But the unexpected Japanese money saved the day by pouring into the U.S. So what we in US have is prosperity based on borrowed money. Therefore it cannot last forever. So certainly most American financiers know we are in a bubble economy but they hate to admit it.

Some successful forecasts in 1970s to 1992: The Ayatollahs would take over Iran in 1979. The US would be entangled in a major fight with fundamentalist Islam starting around 2000. The stock market will crash in 2001. The collapse of the Soviet, but not Chinese communism. George Bush would not be re-elected and that a third party would arise in 1996. The decline of morality in western society.
In his latest book, "The New Golden Age", Jan 2007:, he predicts: Oil price will break new record until 2010 in spite of a slowing economy, but collapse in the next decade. The housing bubble will keep bursting at least till 2009. Share prices slow fall in 2007, but fall will accelerate in 2008 and 2009. An unprecedented movement will appear by 2009 to start a revolution against the rule of wealthy lobbyists in politics. The revolution will lead to a new golden age in the next decade, which will eclipse the reign of wealth in politics, establish a truly free enterprise economy, end permissiveness, and bring now discarded spiritual values back into fashion. The darker human history will finally succumb to the nobility inherent in each and every one of us. It could take another thirty-year cycle before the new age sprouts in its all-encompassing effulgence, but come it will. "The future of the world is bright".

Batra’s approach to forecasting is based on historical cycles of inflation, money growth, and depression as well as the law of social cycles imparted by his late teacher, P.R. Sarkar: History shows that societies are, predictably, led by one of four types of people: laborers, warriors, intellectuals, or acquisitors. Simply put, each group sits at the top for a time, until another group assumes power. Batra wrote that we’re nearing the end of the acquisitors stage, when business money class ruled society for profit at all costs. Next stage in US collective social evolution, will be a revolution by laborers, followed by the age of “warriors” — courageous people willing to take risks.

After The Great Depression of 1990, He wrote The Myth of Free Trade, claiming free trade itself could destroy America’s economy. Productivity was rapidly outpacing wages, bringing windfall profits, but leaving others behind. The stock market crash in Dec 2000 was predicted in his book: The Crash of the Millennium in 1999. The New Golden Age was published 2007: He wrote that the current crisis would begin in mid-2007 by rising unemployment, soaring consumer and government debt, and huge stock market losses. National leaders would be late in responding to the crisis because the traditional criteria for defining a recession is outdated, given that many companies have sent so many jobs overseas, he said, productivity can rise while American wages stagnate and even shrink.

When productivity rises, more goods are produced. But since wages are flat, consumers have no extra money to buy the extra goods. And when sales shrink, the whole downward spiral begins. “The main reason why I wrote and put my own career on the line was to avoid the very things that are happening right now,” he said. Kanth explains: he writes against the sacred cows of economics (free trade) and economists (the establishment and capitalism) and shows the moral corruption of the [economics] profession and the ruling elites. Thom Hartmann adds: It’s no wonder, that Batra’s predictions haven’t been popular on the national stage... The core of his predictions: an increasing gap between rich and poor can destroy a society. (

Batra thinks the approaches taken by Congress and the White House have only worsened the economic storm that is spreading worldwide. “The 2008 bailout is the latest instance of crisis profiteering,” he said. “The investment bankers will come out smiling while the public foots the bill.”
The government’s help should have been directed toward homeowners and lenders, not Goldman Sachs. Batra thinks Obama “has his heart in the right place” and he’s not a member of the rich elite, but who he’s bringing on board...Geithner as treasury secretary...

Low-income Americans are not able to buy even Christmas gifts, so lower rates aren’t going to be enough to help them buy homes. Batra would recommend three initiatives to stimulate the economy to the powers that be: to increase the minimum wage immediately and the pay for government employees; to help struggling homeowners, with such ideas as FDIC chief Sheila Blair; to use $10 billion to spark improvements in the sick auto industry, where stocks and company control would be given to workers. The other $5 billion would go toward pension costs. Batra calls it mass capitalism — capitalism at the level of the masses. It’s not socialism - government ownership of property.

He sees some very heavy years ahead, when things doesn't improve and people will start questioning. Despite all short-term pessimism, he’s convinced that positive change is on the way, based on Sarkar's historical, economic and social cycles. “We are on the verge of a social revolution — it’s already started. The second part, where new ideas and new reforms take over, will come after few years. Then the age of acquisitors will be over, and there will be a new age with a totally different attitude toward the economic system.

The revolution will bring in a new chapter of greater economic equality — first in the U.S, then to the rest of the world. “The U.S. has never been in any other age other than the age of acquisitors. So this will be a new experience for the U.S. Prosperity will make a comeback, and the U.S. will maintain its superiority, he predicts.

He expects political revolution and that we will benefit from it. US economy is touted as a free enterprise economy, but in fact we have a monopolized economy, "Crony Capitalism." So we have gotten into this mess by: first, allowing wages to lag behind productivity and secondly by artificially bolstering demand by creating a tremendous amount of debt, so we have postponed the problem.

It is the power of money over politics that is creating problems. Rich people have increased ability to buy off elections. So their power has risen very sharply in the U.S. and also in the rest of the world. So Crony Capitalism is ruling the world...A booming stock market comes from a rising wage gap and rising wealth concentration. But productive investments or investments that boost economic growth result only when money goes into real assets.

Asian Tigers, Brazil or Russia have an inflationary recession, but because U.S. economy has remained strong, they have been able to export and keep their economies going. But this time it is inflationary in nature - exception to the past. The reason why it is inflationary is that their currencies have collapsed....When there is inflation, gold becomes king.

Monopolistic nature of capitalism leads to the rising wage gap and rising wealth disparity and potentially rising demand gap and rising stock prices that cannot be sustained by real demand growth. So that is the ultimate problem around the world and that is also the case in the U.S.

It is not the Fed that is controlling society, but rather a certain mentality. So no matter what the Fed does, the acquisitive mentality has apparently created a three decade long cycle of money growth. The economy grew because that wages kept up with productivity! U.S. is at the center of its own global empire. In any empire the center is the last to fall. But this is a very dangerous situation because we are talking about an inflationary depression. So even bonds that do well in a deflationary period will get hit hard in an inflationary period...

In early stages of history each step along the way was better. Thus Feudalism was better than what preceded it. Capitalism was better than Feudalism, but Crony Capitalism is better than the earliest capitalism, say during the industrial revolution. So the new system will be much better than the current Crony Capitalism. Over thousands of years of human evolution, we have discovered political democracy but we have yet to discover economic democracy.

Batra tells about his life and spiritual struggle: 1964 Batra met spiritual leader and scientist Sarkar to learn the science of spirituality, how to meditate on fatherly creator. His non compromising resolve was since tested many times. He developed honesty and non violence and wanted to help the poor and exploited people.

Batra got scholarship to US University at the time when the winds of sexual freedom wiped across US; girls were easily available for dating. Batra resisted the temptation by going more deep in meditation, but his studies suffered when he missed many classes. Still he was not satisfied of the divine attention, until he realized that he could do his studies fast and then concentrate just to his meditation.

He told his tutor that he wanted to complete all seven exams in one month instead of two years, which it would have normally taken. The tutor was more than surprised. Batra started tremendous study and spent less time in meditation. He realized that by writing he learnt much faster. That way he made his dissertation ready before his exams and without passing preparation stage. The tutor was speechless, but accepted his dissertation. As well he passed the exams with top grades. Three years study was accomplished in less than two months.

The tutor was expecting him to take now job, but his aim was just to do meditation day and night during ther rest two year scholarship time. Year 1968 Sarkar requested him to come to India. Sarkar noted that “his face was shining with the innocence of a devotee and the fire of a principled man”. Batra went into deep meditative state for hour, then Sarkar advised him to go back to US and establish himself in economics for removing the poverty of the world.

Batra thought that he was not even in the top 50 universities in US, so how could he reach any attention. He knew meditation alone will not make his mission to help the poor, he needed to establish himself as top economist before anyone would listen him. He started by sending his writings to most respected economic journals, first they all rejected, but finally Oxford Economic Paper accepted his writing. He gave all the honor to his spiritual father; “he is the writer, I'm just a spectator.”

1969 he ended up teaching in University, in 1971 he had already written 5 accepted articles in top journals around the world, and in1973 already 20. He became also the head of SMU university economic deparment in 1977. He wrote a book about history, his favorite subject after reading Sarka's books about economics and history. He was charmed about Sarkarian historical philosophy.

1978 Economic Inquiry published list of 46 top economists. Batra was third amongst famous university professors from Harvard and Stanford. But his triumph was short as he started to challenge the present economic theories, which brought him soon opposition. He expected that at the end of the century the extreme concentration of wealth in the western countries would trigger violent social upheavals.

Then 1983 he wrote a book predicting The Greatest Depression of 1990 hoping to wake up the public. The ostracism went into full swing. Nobody wanted to publish his book. He tried 30 different publishers. Finally he had to publish it himself and as well distribute, which he did with all his determination. Second printing was done on 1985. He tried to create sacrificing attitude by doing serious fastings to create environment for its success, until he was ready to surrender and concentrated on meditation. But then the book gain more and more attention, someone called to tell, that his book had shaken up New York Stock Exchange, and he didn't even have publisher for it.

Finally some publisher approached him to get it for printing. It went soon 10 th on New York Times best seller list - never before any economic book had done it. But his fellow economists denounced it with unusual vehemence. In his book he had predicted stocks to crash at the end of 1987, and the biggest crash ever in history; the black monday came. Now his book became Best seller on New York Times list and stayed on that stage more than year.

Ravi Batra has done tremendous work to make people to understand that economy could change the course of the world into prosperity for all.

Ravi Batra has toured around the world, he visited also Finland in 90s and met professors and media. page: Batra predicts US occupation retreats on Muslin countries to face defeat at the end, due to lack of moral, money and resources. 

Sources: Jay Taylor, Hartman, Raj Time, Kant, Kendal Anderson, Ravi Batra India's brilliant future -book 1989

Didi Annapurna 

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